linnugripiblog

mõned punktid kokkuvõttest:

* Global economic interdependencies, China’s importance in commodity markets and in exports of low-priced goods increase the economic disruption from a human pandemic. So does the prodigious volume of international trade and travel. Supply chains are global and inventories are managed on a just-in-time basis.

* Unlike other natural disasters or terrorism, pandemics are prolonged and pervasive, so the net economic loss is substantial and extended.

* Immediate losers—in addition to the poultry industry and its ancillary businesses— would be tourism, travel and transport sectors, the hospitality industry, public transportation, life and health insurers, theatres, casinos, sports facilities, spectator sports, religious facilities, convention halls, restaurants, retailers of nonessential goods, and providers of nonessential services or those that could directly spread disease such as dentists and hairdressers.

* A pandemic would lead to considerable supply and demand effects. Loss of labour and trade would dominate the supply-side effect and social distancing and fear would increase the demand for essentials such as non-perishable food, water, medical supplies and health-care services, but reduce the demand for virtually everything else.

* If there were a cytokine storm, as in 1918, pregnant women and 15-to-40 year olds would be proportionately the hardest hit. This would have a lasting impact on population characteristics and, therefore, a sustained effect on society and economic activity all over the world. Birth rates would plunge and the average age of the population would increase significantly.

kui on raske - 1918a võrreldav - pandeemia:

Fear and panic would no doubt ensue, at least temporarily, which could lead to unruly or criminal behaviour and most communities would have inadequate numbers of fi rst responders. These first responders and health care workers should be among the fi rst to get prophylactic antiviral medication. Safety and security would be a primary issue, particularly as shortages of Tamiflu, water, and food emerge.

Employees would look to their employers for frequent, clear and accurate information; but rumours would be rampant and media hype could well contribute to the panic. Leadership would be essential, as we saw with Rudy Giuliani’s handling of the World Trade Center attacks in stark contrast to Ray Nagin’s (mayor of New Orleans) handling of Hurricane Katrina.

Some of the big immediate losers, joining the poultry industry, would be the tourism sector, travel and transport businesses, the hospitality industry, and luxury goods suppliers. We saw this vividly with SARS in Toronto, China and Hong Kong. Planes, to the extent they took off, would be virtually empty.

Public transportation would be shunned. Life and health insurers would be devastated by the rise in death rates and the overwhelming demands for medical services. All public and private gatherings of people would likely cease, even if they weren’t offi cially prohibited. Theatres, casinos, sports facilities, religious facilities, convention halls and restaurants would quickly empty. All food-service businesses would be hit, but particularly those that
specialize in chicken. No one would go to the dentist or to doctors, except for flu or emergency conditions. Business as usual would be virtually nonexistent.

Shortages would emerge very quickly as supplies of water, food, medical products, and all other essential items would rapidly be consumed. Machinery and equipment might cease to function if key parts were no longer available, not to mention that there could be a shortage of sufficiently trained labour to provide many essential
goods and services. This is why continuity planning is so important.

We can’t rule out the possibility of prolonged government-service disruptions. Insufficient waste management, clean water and fuel might exacerbate the crisis all over the world. The electricity grid—already old and inadequate in the U.S. and Canada—might shut down for extended periods. Power generation, transmission and distribution are already running near full capacity and brown outs regularly occur during extreme heat, or cold weather. The average age of the infrastructure in the U.S. is 42 years; the average age of workers is over 50. The power systems have little shock-absorbing capacity. Pandemic would make any repairs very difficult and most industry experts suggest that outages will occur. Power outages
already cost the U.S. roughly $100 billion a year.

Prolonged power outages would have huge disruptive effects. Once systems break down, it is very costly and time consuming to start them back up. Without electricity, many would be without Internet access or other sources of news. Telephone service could continue for some period without power, but not indefinitely.

Cash machines would not work and credit card validation equipment might not function. Gasoline stations could not pump gas, reducing the value of generators as the gas runs out. Airports keep only a few days of fuel on hand at any one time. For deliveries, UPS and Fed Ex have very detailed continuity plans that they have not, thus far, released to the public for competitive reasons. Refineries would power down. Fresh food and certain medications would spoil. Hospital equipment would function only for as long as the generators were fuelled.

Preparedness planning is critical for government, businesses, hospitals, and individuals. Battery-operated radios and fl ashlights, large supplies of batteries, stockpiles of bottled water, gasoline, and non-perishable foods might be life saving. Extra supplies of essential medications for chronic conditions, syringes, face masks, antibacterial soap and cleaners should also be considered. According to Tommy Thompson, former head of U.S. Homeland Security, 80% of pharmaceutical ingredients come from outside the U.S. and supplies would quickly dry up.