linnugripiblog

hea kokkuvõtlik võrdlus SARS vs H5N1

Why H5N1 would be different from SARS
A potential human H5N1 virus would have several key differences to the coronavirus that caused SARS:
1) H5N1 would be much more easily transmissible — Influenza viruses are airborne, easily transmitted by a cough or a sneeze; SARS was droplet-borne: only close face-to-face contact transmitted SARS.
2) Carriers of H5N1 would be infectious before falling ill — People infected by influenza viruses are infectious before they themselves are sick. This means the basic measures that helped control SARS, such as fever-checks, airportscreening
and isolating sick people, would be of little or no use against a possible human H5N1 virus.
3) Influenza has a much shorter incubation period — SARS’s incubation period is 10 days, giving time to trace contacts and quarantine suspects. Influenza has a 2-to3-day incubation period, so these measures would be useless.
“Once pandemic influenza begins to spread internationally, it will be unstoppable,” says the WHO.
4) As a result, H5NI could potentially spread to all five continents within weeks – Once SARS became virulent in early 2003, it spread from South China to Hong Kong, Vietnam and Canada within three weeks. A human H5N1 virus could potentially move faster and further, carried by intercontinental jets.

WHO ..

Ten things the WHO wants you to know about pandemic influenza
1. Pandemic influenza is different from avian influenza.
Avian influenza refers to a group of influenza viruses that primarily affect birds. On rare occasions, they can infect other species, including humans. The majority of avian influenza viruses do not infect humans. An influenza pandemic happens when a subtype emerges that has not previously circulated in humans. Avian H5N1 is a strain with pandemic potential since it might adapt into a strain that is humanly transmissible.
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events.
Three influenza pandemics occurred in the 20th century: “Spanish influenza” in 1918, “Asian influenza” in 1957, and “Hong Kong influenza” in 1968. The 1918 pandemic was exceptional, killing an estimated 40–50 million people — one of the deadliest disease events in human history. Later pandemics were milder, with an estimated 2 million deaths in 1957 and 1 million in 1968.
3. The world may be on the brink of another pandemic.
Health experts have monitored a new and extremely severe influenza virus – the H5N1 strain – for almost 8 years. The H5N1 strain first infected humans in Hong Kong in 1997, causing 18 cases and 6 deaths. Since mid-2003, this virus has caused the largest and most severe outbreaks in poultry on record. Since December 2003 over 100 human cases have been laboratory-confirmed in 4 Asian countries, and more than half of these people have died. Fortunately, the virus does not jump easily from birds to humans or spread readily and sustainably among humans.
4. All countries will be affected.
Once a fully contagious virus emerges, its global spread is considered inevitable. Countries might, through measures such as border closures and travel restrictions, delay arrival of the virus, but cannot stop it. The pandemics of the previous century encircled the globe in 6 to 9 months, even when most international travel was by ship. Given speed and volume of international air travel today, the virus could spread more rapidly, possibly reaching all continents in less than 3 months.

3 kuud on reaalne ainult siis kui lennuliiklus koheselt 100% lõpetatakse :D
muidu - mõned päevad, maksimaalselt mõni nädal - ja see aeg kulub juhtumi registreerimisega

5. Widespread illness will occur. Because most people will have no immunity to the pandemic virus, infection and illness rates are expected to be higher than during seasonal epidemics of normal influenza. Current projections for the next pandemic estimate that a substantial percentage of the world’s population will require some form of medical care. Few countries have the staff, facilities, equipment, and hospital beds needed to cope with large numbers of people who suddenly fall ill. 6. Medical supplies will be inadequate. Supplies of vaccines and antiviral drugs – the two most important medical interventions for reducing illness and deaths during a pandemic – will be inadequate in all countries at the start of a pandemic and for months thereafter. Inadequate supplies of vaccines are of particular concern, as vaccines are considered first line of defence for protecting populations. On present trends, many developing countries will have no access to vaccines throughout the duration of a pandemic.

mitte ainult gripiravimid, kõik ülejäänud ravimid samuti muutuvad defitsiitseks

7. Large numbers of deaths will occur. Historically, death rates during pandemics have varied greatly, depending on the number of people who become infected, the virulence of the virus, the characteristics of affected populations and the effectiveness of preventive measures. All estimates of the number of deaths are purely speculative until the pandemic virus emerges. WHO uses a conservative estimate – from 2 million to 7.4 million deaths – based on the comparatively mild 1957 pandemic. Estimates based on a more virulent virus, closer to the one seen in 1918, are much higher.

irw @ palju kõrgem .. ei julge välja öelda, jah? :D 1918a oli rahvaarv ca 1,5 miljardit - surevus hispaania grippi oli 50-100 miljonit, märksa madalama asustustiheduse juures praegu on 6,5 miljardit - samad numbrid oleksid siis 200-500 miljonit, venelased on öelnud ka miljard ei tasu unustada, et enamus sellest 6,5 miljardist elab samades või halvemates tingimustes kui sajand tagasi ja praegune arstiabi tugineb praktiliselt ainult keemiale ja tehnikale, millest ei piisa pandeemia korral

8. Economic and social disruption will be great. Past pandemics have spread globally in two and sometimes three waves. Not all parts of the world or of a single country are expected to be severely affected at the same time. Social and economic disruptions could be temporary, but may be amplified in today’s closely interrelated and interdependent systems of trade and commerce. Social disruption may be greatest when rates of absenteeism impair essential services, such as power, transportation, and communications. 9. Every country must be prepared. WHO has issued a series of recommended strategic actions for responding to the influenza pandemic threat. The actions are designed to provide different layers of defence that reflect the complexity of the evolving situation. Recommended actions are different for the present phase of pandemic alert, the emergence of a pandemic virus, and the declaration of a pandemic and its subsequent international spread.

jahah

10. WHO will alert the world when the pandemic threat increases. WHO works closely with ministries and public health organizations in surveillance of influenza strains. A system that can detect emerging influenza strains is essential for the rapid detection of a pandemic virus. Six phases have been defined to facilitate pandemic preparedness planning, with roles defined for governments, industry, and WHO. The present is phase 3: a virus new to humans is causing infections, but does not spread easily from one person to another.

see viimane punkt on naerukoht :S esiteks, WHO-l võtab praegu ühe linnugripisurma kinnitamine aega nädalaid .. kuidas on reaalselt üleüldse võimalik õigeaegselt hoiatada sellisel juhul? ja kuidas nad üldse julgevad sellist lubadust anda? täielik müstika .. selle aja peale kui WHO annab ametliku pandeemiateate on viirus ammu igal kontinendil ja praktiliselt igas riigis

ja mis puutub faasidesse - irw
siis nad ei julge faas 4 välja kuulutada, kuna sellega on seotud igasugused pandeemiaplaanide käivitumised, mis hakkavad kohe majandusele mõju avaldama
ja seega muutsid nad lihtsalt eelmisel aastal faas 4 definitsiooni ära :DDD
eelmise versiooni kohaselt oleme ammu neljandas faasis, kui mitte juba viiendas

ma usun kindlalt, et pandeemiast saab enamus teada mitte WHO käest, vaid telekas näidatavate laibamägede kaudu .. vähemus tuvastab alguse internetis leviva mitteametliku info kaudu
muuhulgas jälgib ka WHO väga hoolikalt foorumites levivaid kuulujutte :p