linnugripiblog

There is a growing consensus that a large-scale, and possibly catastrophic, flu epidemic is imminent. While it is not the only health crisis threatening world populations, it is the most menacing one.

This long-awaited flu virus is expected to be so contagious that any attempt to close off borders and control migration would be ineffective.The consequences of a flu epidemic would be devastating. Between 180 and 360 million people could perish. Aside from the sheer dent in the global workforce, an epidemic of medium proportions would break global production chains, shatter trade and impede the delivery of services involving human contact. A widespread flu pandemic would throw the world into a sudden and possibly dramatic global recession.

While the pandemic would spread throughout the world, the impact would be highly skewed. Asian and African countries would be the hardest hit. A pandemic would also feed on and heighten existing inequalities. It would not only kill millions of people, it would have the power to close borders, destabilize economies and topple unstable governments. It would elevate the more traditional security risks and help shape a world where other threats could blossom.

Canada will not escape the imminent pandemic, and unless the level of global preparedness improves, panic will reign. Estimates of the scale of fatalities vary widely, but in the worst-case scenario, an H5N1 avian flu epidemic could kill as many as 1.6 million Canadians.1 An epidemic such as this would paralyze our manufacturing sector. Border disruptions would shatter integrated production lines and could last more than a year. Direct medical costs could surpass hundreds of millions of dollars. Canadian businesses and business organizations must be prepared to deal with a major flu outbreak—to coordinate with government emergency agencies, reduce the risk of disease transmission in the workplace, and maintain essential business functions despite the potential for high employee absenteeism. The Conference Board is currently surveying Canadian private sector organizations to see how prepared they are for an influenza pandemic.