linnugripiblog

Preliminary considerations:

There will most likely not be a targeted vaccine until about 6 months after pandemic has begun; any vaccine prepared ahead of the pandemic will likely confer only partial protection
There will most likely not be enough antivirals for treatment, let alone prophylactic use
Assume a quarter to a half of the public will become infected over a 3 month period (a flu wave, of which there usually are 3 — the worst being the 2nd — a few weeks or months apart) and 3/4 to a half staffing everywhere for various durations
Virus will be shed before symptoms appear (which can be 3 - 6, up to even 17 days) and after symptoms (21 days for children, 3–5 days for adults, longer for the immunocompromised)
Children and otherwise healthy young adults are disproportionately at risk
All bodily excreta will be very dangerous, especially feces and sputum/mucus; virus often multiplies in gut and diarrhea is often first symptom, preceding respiratory symptoms
We will probably need two or more times the hospital beds and ICU facilities
There will probably be mortality of at least an extra 50% beyond normal; a high percentage of these are likely to be under 65 years old, which comprise workers in essential services
Most patients should probably be treated in the home, or if more critical, in secondary ICU-like set ups in schools or other locations
Hospitals will need to continue their usual work and erect a firewall to protect vulnerable inmates from flu
Childcare and family nursing responsibilities will strain ability of healthcare workers and other essential infrastructure workers to provide services
Public services such as water, power, waste disposal, communications, and transportation will likely be intermittently interrupted
Deliveries of food and other essential commodities may be disrupted
There may be civil disorder due to shortages and desperation