level 4&5 - hullem pandeemia kui 1918
Continuing the discussion of the conditions we can expect to encounter and what the reasonable planning criteria are each level, we now get to Levels 4 and 5, which are the most difficult to plan for. The reason for this difficulty is that both of these levels represent events that are unprecedented in the history of industrial society, and so in some degree anything I or anyone else say is purely conjecture.
But having made that introduction, and resuming my role as planning helper, we can begin to look at just what we;re up against. In my original planning criteria, Level 4 was stated to be a Pandemic situation worse than 1918. For the purpose of this discussion, I’ll place an estimated fatality level at 5%, with many other people suffering long-term debilitation from their encounter with the virus. Similarly Level 5 was stated simply to be Pandemic Plague. Now, as I am not a medical practitioner, I do not claim to be using those terms correctly. What I intended to suggest with that label was a highly virulent illness, spreading H2H and with a fatality rate in excess of 10% of the population. Similar to the plagues of the past.
In our planning for previous levels, we have become used to stockpiling those materials whose supply we feel will become interrupted for a while, such as medicines, foodstuffs, water and fuel. At this point, the guidance becomes much less precise and yet more urgent:
You will need to provide a supply of everything you anticipate needing for an extended period. It may be months or even years before some of the things you have grown to depend on will again be available. If ever.
I am lumping Levels 4 and 5 together for two reasons; first, I don’t view them as distinctly different planning problems, and second, if we experience a Pandemic at either of these levels, the world we live in and the social and economic conditions in your local area will be drastically different from what they are today. So what general guidlines can I offer for planing;
1) Medicines - You will need to stockpile a year’s worth of maintenance medicines simply because, as Michael Osterholm pointed out in his testimony before Congress, the production of medicines in this and other countries will be disrupted due to supply chain failures. You will need to be self reliant for a good long while. If there is a substance whose availability is a matter of life and death, you will need enough to insure a steady supply in the face of major disruption. You should also be looking at what, if any, alternatives you may have in front of you for maintenance without those, or any meds. Some may face the sudden unavailability of life saving therapies such as dialysis.
2) Doctors and Hospitals - There may be very little emergency treatment available for injuries or acute disease. You should be prepared with sufficient first aid materials and learning to be able to treat all but the most severe injuries yourself. It may be a long wait before you can obtain professional medical treatment.
3) Personal Supplies and Toiletries - What do you use? How much do you plan to stock? Do you really need it? What will you do either as an alternative or without it?
4) Food and Water - How much can you really store? What is your plan for an ongoing supply past what is on your shelves? Do you have, or can you get to open ground to grow some of your own food? Can you catch rain or dig a well if you need to? Did you include seeds and tools in your stockpile?
5) Light and Heat. What is the climate where you live? What renewable source of energy will you use for light and heat, as normal utilities will most certainly be disrupted, and however much fuel you store will eventually run out. Think of needs for heating, cooking, lighting and cooling.
6) Personal Safety - This is the point where the discussions in the “Post Pandemic Violence” thread become applicable
the list goes on for quite a while. I think you get the idea. Once we get to these higher levels, you also need to consider one additional concept..
You may not personally survive. Or some portion of those sheltered with you may not survive. What will you, or your loved ones do if one or more succumb to the virus. Does everyone know how all the gadgets you have loaded up on work? Can your children safely run the lights? the heat? Cab they prepare their own food if the adults are incapacitated?
Comments
Ole hea ja tõlgi need tekstid ka ära.
nad on seda väärt, ingliskeelse infoga saavad oskajad nii ehk nii hakkama, laiad massid on laisad ja neile meeldib eesti keel.
Posted by: Sekeldaja | 01.28.06 01:40
njah, selleks oleks vaja märkimisväärselt rohkem aega kui mul käepärast :(
aga vabatahtlikud tõlked on teretulnud ;)
riputan üles ja kiidan :))
minu meiliaadress on sue510@gmail.com
ja khm, ma sügavalt kahtlen, kas "laiad massid" siin lugejaks käivad :)
blogilugejad on enamasti nooremad ja enamasti inglise keelt enamvähem valdajad ..
"laiadele massidele" peaks riik saatma koju infovoldikud vajaliku infoga, eesti ja vene keeles
Posted by: Sue | 01.28.06 09:50